Find below research publications published and disseminated by the Pathfinder Foundation
El Nino Looms: Are We Ready?
Pathfinder Economic Flash
There is an emerging consensus that this is likely to be an El Nino year. Experts have indicated that there is a 58% probability that it will begin to take effect in 3Q 2014; there is an 80% chance of it materializing in the last quarter of this year.